Which League is Best?

This work is co-authored with Madeline Gall.

While scouting for some sports is straightforward (college football → NFL), scouting for the NHL can be a more arduous process. With players from over 45+ international ice hockey leagues, each with its own regulations and difficulties, how can one adequately assess the quality of a player’s performance? Comparisons between leagues are not easily made; 18 points for an eighteen year old playing against other eighteen year olds in a minor league should not be attributed the same value as 18 points for an eighteen year old playing against veterans in the NHL. 

There have been other attempts to account for this, including player translation variables, like that of Rob Vollman’s hockey translation factors, and Gabriel Desjardin’s NHL Equivalency Ratings (NHLe). Desjardin’s NHLe previously tackled the issue of comparing and predicting player performance for League-to-NHL transitions (moving from another league into the NHL). It was great for a quick, general comparison and certainly has its advantages (easy and quick to calculate), but there are some drawbacks to its method. For starters, it didn’t necessarily control for team quality, position, and age. Translation factors are calculated using statistics from players who have played at least 20 games in the given league before playing at least 20 in the NHL. That means there’s a lot of valuable data about these in-between transitions that aren’t being used. 

In this project, we introduce a new method for comparing and projecting player performance across leagues using an adjusted z-score metric that would account for these drawbacks. This metric controls for factors such as age, league, season, and position that affect a player’s P/PG metric, and could be applied to any league of interest. This new metric is necessary as there are many characteristics that vary from league to league. Due to the different playing styles and opponent difficulty, there is not one consistent metric to make comparable evaluations of player performance for hockey leagues around the world. Other factors such as goalie strength, penalty rates, and rink dimensions are also inconsistent across international leagues. Scenarios could occur in which players of similar strength could appear to have seemingly different performances.

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An Introduction to R With Hockey Data

I have written a couple articles over the past few months on using R with hockey data (see here and here), but both of those articles were focused on intermediate techniques and presumed beginner knowledge of R. In contrast, this article is for the complete beginner. We’ll go through the steps of downloading and setting up R and then, with the use of a sample hockey data set, learn the very basics of R for exploring and visualizing data.

One of the wonderful things about using R is that it’s a flexible, growing language, meaning that there are often many different ways to get to the same, correct result. The examples below are meant to be a gentle introduction to different parts of R, but please know that this really only scratches the surface of what’s available.

The code used for this tutorial (which also includes more detail and more examples) is available on our Github here.

Downloading R and Getting Set Up

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Lateral Puck Movement in the NZ

Research shows that lateral/”east-west” puck movement in the offensive zone is beneficial to increasing one’s odds of scoring. But I have now heard from people in various positions within the hockey industry on why it might also be useful to generate east-west puck movement in the neutral zone. The theories – focused on lateral passing, lane changes and stretch passes, respectively – all boiled down to one point: When you rush the puck up ice, the defending team will focus on that side, leaving the other side of the ice somewhat more open, so there might be open ice to exploit.

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Passing clusters: A Framework to Evaluate a Team’s Breakout

Quick breakouts – trying to move the puck out of your zone right after gaining possession – make up roughly 38% of possessions and account for 22% of all shots and 22.4% of Expected Goals (at least according to my possession and xG definitions). Therefore, understanding what does and does not work when breaking out the puck against present forecheckers is important. There is evidence that passes from the defensive half boards by wingers inside produce more offense than those straight up ice. But the puck is more often recovered elsewhere, so these passes by wingers aren’t the first pass in a possession and are therefore presumably influenced by the previous play. It should be interesting to find out how the inclusion of the pass(es) that came before affects this conclusion.

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A crowdfunding initiative to promote diversity at the Columbus Analytics Conference

I’ve been fortunate enough to be able to attend the last three years of the RIT Sports Analytics Conference. The first year I went, I was nervous to meet people whose work I admired. I was afraid that nobody would want to talk to this new person that few people knew and who was just starting to learn about the field. 

I could not have been more wrong. 

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Exploratory Data Analysis Using Tidyverse

This post assumes beginner knowledge of R.

Welcome to the second article in our series on basic data cleaning and data manipulation! In this article, we’re going to use play-by-play data from two NHL games and answer two questions:

  • which power play unit generated the best shot rate in each game?
  • which defenseman played the most 5v5 minutes in each game?

In the process of doing so, we’ll cover several topics of basic data manipulation in the tidyverse, including using functions, creating joins, grouping and summarizing data, and working with string data.

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Combining Manually-Tracked Data with Play-by-Play Data

This post assumes beginner knowledge of R.

If you’ve ever analyzed hockey data, then you’re probably familiar with the NHL’s Real Time Scoring System, which produces what’s more commonly known as play-by-play data. These data are publicly available and allow us to see every event recorded by the NHL in a given game. Shown below are selected details about the first 10 events from two games on February 18, 2019: Tampa Bay at Columbus and Vegas at Colorado.

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The Importance of Pressure for a Successful Forecheck

Most of my posts so far have talked about zone exits from the perspective of the team trying to breakout out of their defensive zone. Now, let’s flip the script and discuss the team on the forecheck. This team does not have possession of the puck, but they are in their offensive zone, which is an advantage. So, how can they regain control?

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Team Level Zone Exits

From past posts, we have a general sense of the basics of zone exits: zone exits are important because they get you out of your zone and towards an opportunity to score. The key to a successful zone exit is maintaining possession, ideally by avoiding the temptation to dump the puck out.

But so far, we have only looked at zone exits league wide. Most fans care about one particular team more than the rest, but we haven’t looked at team-level results at all. So today, let’s see how each team has performed at zone exits over the past three seasons.

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