SEAL-Adjusted Scoring and why it matters for prospects

While the primary focus of the hockey analytics community has been around roster optimization, there has been a small subset of the community that has worked a great deal on prospect analytics. This includes the work of Gabriel Desjardins’ on NHL Equivalent scoring, Josh Weissbock and Cam Lawrence’s work on Player Cohort Success (since purchased by the Florida Panthers), and Rhys Jessop’s work on adjusted scoring metrics.

As a big fan of prospect scouting and analytics, I wanted to add to the community by expanding upon the work done by Jessop.

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NCAA Defencemen Graduation Rates and NHL Success

Northeastern UMass Hockey 8657.jpg
Northeastern UMass Hockey 8657” by SignalPADFlickr. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 via Commons.

I’ve been playing with some NCAA prospect numbers lately and I had a hypothesis.

To set the stage, under the current CBA NHL teams have up to 30 days after a prospect leaves school to sign their drafted prospects to an NHL Entry Level Contract (ELC), or by August 15th after they’ve graduated.

What this means is that teams have an incentive to encourage players they think will become NHLers to sign as soon as possible. The trade-off with signing an NCAA player is the player loses their amateur eligibility and automatically has to move to another league. NCAA prospects typically move on to the AHL or NHL but it is not unheard of to see prospects take a side-step to the CHL in the odd circumstance.

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