NHL Topical Analysis

NHL Topical Analysis pieces are team- or player-specific analyses intended to tell us about league trends.

Racial Bias in Drafting and Development: The NHL’s Black Quarterback Problem

yolo_pinyato NHL Topical Analysis, Prospects and Draft 9 Comments

Introduction

It is far from shocking that the National Hockey League has no peer among major American sports leagues in terms of racial homogeneity. Most estimates place the proportion of White players in the league in the range of 92-95%, far from comparable leagues like the National Football League, National Basketball Association and even Major League Baseball.

In the past year, the league celebrated an obscure but rather dubious milestone. If you combined all the faceoffs* taken by every Black player** in the NHL between 2008 and 2019, you would end up with 14,375 total faceoffs, or about 20 fewer than Golden Knights center Paul Stastny in that time frame (according to Hockey-reference.com). It was only in this past season that the total of the Black players overtook Stastny.

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By the numbers: thinking about the World Championships a different way

hayyyshayyy NHL Topical Analysis 2 Comments

This post was co-authored by Shayna Goldman and Alison Lukan

As part of the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 World Championship was cancelled. But, we still wanted to see how rosters for an international tournament with NHLers could have shaken out. While it’s easy to just put together an All Star lineup for most countries, we wanted to add a twist: each country’s roster could only include NHL players and each team had to be compliant with the 2019-20 salary cap. 

So what does this look like? A little bit about our process, first.

Six teams will compete in our fictitious tournament: Canada, USA, Sweden, Finland, Russia, and Europe. Each roster consists of 12 forwards, six defenders, and two goaltenders. Because we were limited to NHL players, talent from outside of those core countries in Europe was combined to form one super team. 

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How Much Do NHL Players Really Make? Part 2: Taxes

hayyyshayyy CBA, NHL Topical Analysis, Uncategorized 6 Comments

Although published NHL salaries may seem exorbitant at times, players’ annual income is subject to a number of withholdings that limit their take-home pay. As we explained in Part 1 of this series, players lose some of their earnings to escrow – a reconciliation process arising out the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the league and the NHL Players’ Association. Another expense that reduces a player’s earnings is something that all workers in the United States and Canada are subject to: taxes.

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How Much Do NHL Players Really Make?

hayyyshayyy CBA, NHL Topical Analysis 3 Comments

Under the provisions of the collective bargaining agreement between the NHL and the NHLPA, a player’s cap hit and the salary they are paid can be two very distinct values in any given year. But even when you understand those differences, how much do NHL player actually take home?

Players’ actual earnings are diminished by a number of factors including escrow, agent fees, and taxes. Agent fees can range from 2-6% depending on representation agreements and services rendered. Tax rates vary throughout the NHL depending on the country, state, and city a team and player reside and play in. But of all the deductions from their income, escrow might be considered the greatest annoyance, as it’s a mechanism to ensure that the owners collect a greater share of hockey-related revenues (HRR) than they have in previous collective bargaining agreements (CBA).

So what is escrow, how much does it actually deplete a player’s salary, and why has it contributed to the tensions between players and owners?

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FQG: Cumulative Hits in the Conference Final

hayyyshayyy NHL Topical Analysis, Playing Styles, Uncategorized 1 Comment

May-15-2017 21-24-14 phaneuf hits guentzal

Throughout the playoffs (quarterfinals, semifinals), I have analyzed whether a team’s hits for and against were indicative of their success. Studying a team’s Corsi for percentage per game and expected goals for per game alongside their cumulative hits can help us spot high-level trends.

We’re seeking to determine the accuracy of the narrative that many hockey traditionalists love – that a team must increase their hitting to succeed in their quest for the Stanley Cup. This has been studied in recent seasons, including 2014-15 season, 2015 playoffs, and 2016 playoffs, yet no decisive correlation was found between a team’s increased hitting and success. So far in the first two rounds of the playoffs, this seems to hold true.

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How Indicative are hits in the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Semifinals

hayyyshayyy NHL Topical Analysis, Playing Styles, Uncategorized Tags: , , Leave a comment

After the conclusion of the 2017 Stanley Cup Quarterfinals, I looked at whether a team’s hits for and against were indicative on their play. By looking at a team’s Corsi for percentage per game and expected goals for per game, against their cumulative hits as their first round progressed, it could be observed whether a team’s production dropped due to being outhit.

As it was explained in the first part of this series, many hockey traditionalists point to an increased number of hits as a necessity to compete for the Stanley Cup. There is a preconceived notion by some hockey minds that a team will become worn out if they are consistently outhit in the playoffs and subsequently will not be able maintain their production. However, in the 2014-15 season, 2015 playoffs, and 2016 playoffs, no decisive correlation was found between success and hits.

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How Indicative are hits in the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Quarter-finals

hayyyshayyy NHL Topical Analysis, Playing Styles Tags: , , 2 Comments

As the Stanley Cup Playoffs progress, the intensity rises. This often leads to more physical play, thus an increase of hits. Hockey traditionalists, including players and coaches, have often pointed to increased hits as a part of playoff hockey. Some teams have altered their strategy to embody a more physical style, simply because it is the playoffs.

The impact of hitting has been explored before during the 2014-15 season, the 2015 playoffs (both by Garret Hohl), and the 2016 playoffs (by @yolo_pinyato). However, none found a decisive correlating success to hits.

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Grit vs. Skill: Tanner Glass vs. Pavel Buchnevich

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After losing 4-1 to the Montreal Canadiens on March 4, the Rangers recalled Tanner Glass from the their AHL affiliate, the Hartford Wolfpack. Rather than attribute the loss to the Rangers playing poorly––since the Canadiens outshot the Rangers 35-27, won 63% of faceoffs, and had Carey Price in net––much of the blame for the loss was placed on the Rangers lack of “grit” and “toughness.” According to the Rangers, the difference makers in that game were Dwight King, Andrew Shaw, and Steve Ott.

Since recalling Tanner Glass, he has played in six games, and has recorded a goal and an assist. Many view having a tough player like Glass in the lineup as a deterrent. In his first game back with the Rangers against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Glass put his toughness on display early by fighting Luke Witkowski. Later that period, Gabriel Dumont of the Lightning boarded Rangers’ defenseman Steven Kampfer––something that Glass’s presence should have deterred, right?

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How does performance as of Dec. 1 relate to making the playoffs?

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Every year right around December 1, NHL analysts and fans alike start thinking a little more seriously about playoff chances. Although in many ways this is an arbitrary point in time, particularly when linking it to US Thanksgiving, there’s also some logic to it as well.

By the end of November, we are two months in and most teams have played 20-25 games, or a quarter of the season. And from an analytics perspective, that’s about the point when you can start making use of most of the early season data.

So while most of the traditional playoff discussion at this time of the year tends to focus on points or even where teams are in the standings, let’s take a look at how early-season shot-based metrics relate to whether a team ultimately makes the playoffs.

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Shea Weber, Norris Voting, and the Role of the Modern Defender

Carolyn NHL Topical Analysis 4 Comments

So on Thursday, I went on a bit of a rant about the role of defensemen in the NHL. Well, rant is probably the wrong word, as it wasn’t particularly emotional, so let’s call it instead a “tweetstorm”. This piece will expound upon those tweets in greater depth, as I think it’s a topic that deserves a little more than what 140 characters and snark can provide.

Though I can’t promise this won’t also include some snark.

The entire discussion was kick started by this tweet:

Now, you’re probably thinking “oh man, a Shea Weber analytics take. Let me go get my popcorn for the inevitable scathing fallout.”

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