In February, I introduced my hockey version of Baseball’s Marcel forecasting system – a system that uses the last few years of a player’s career, weights the more recent seasons more heavily, and uses that to project future performance. In particular, I was using the system to take an attempt at projecting goalies – who are of course the most unpredictable of hockey players.
Now that the season is over, it’s time to take another stab at goalie projections using Marcels. However, we can do better than we did last time: last time, our projections used Eric’s weights plus a mostly arbitrary regression mechanism. This time, we can use a more realistic (and non-arbitrary) regression as well as attempt to account for aging as well. In short, we SHOULD be building a better projection system for goalies, the most unpredictable of players.
Hockey Graphs 