Are Teams getting Lucky on Rushes?

Introduction

This game was played on January 25th, 2017 between the Vancouver Canucks and the Colorado Avalance at Pepsi Center. In this 2-on-1 rush, Loui Eriksson, #21, carries the puck up the ice. Nikita Tryamkin, #88, outskates Mikko Rantanen, #96, to get to the net and create an dangerous opportunity while the lone defender, Cody Goloubef, #18, sprawled to futilely prevent the pass.

When you look at this offensive rush, do you ever wonder about the numbers behind it? For example, is the number of shots that were preceded by passes repeatable over an entire season? What about shooting percentages? If they are repeatable, do zones of the primary pass (the pass preceding a shot) influence this repeatability? What about rebounds and rebound shooting percentages (the goals scored from rebounds)?

Terminology

In hockey, “odd-man rushes” is a term frequently used to refer to offensive attacks such as the above where the attacking team has more players than the defending team. In my analysis, I will be slightly deviating from this jargon and instead use “odd-player rushes”, which consist of shots that were preceded by passes and taken on breakaways, 2-on-1, 3-on-2, etc. Any shots that are not rush shots with a player advantage are categorized as “all_other_shots”.

In the later parts of this analysis, I will be using the terms, “rebound shot” and “rebound shooting percentage”. The first indicates a shot on goal following a rebound and the second is calculated as rebound goals (goals that follow rebounds) divided by rebound shots.

 

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