It’s time for (another) draft day! Whether your team has the 2nd or 20th overall pick in the NHL entry draft, it’s always a useful exercise to look at past outcomes and modify your expectations accordingly.
Month: June 2017
The Hockey-Graphs Podcast Episode 3: Expansion Draft and GM Rankings
Welcome back to The Hockey-Graphs Podcast! Our third episode showcases Chris Watkins and Carolyn Wilke‘s recent articles; The 2017 NHL GM Report Cards (Parts 1, 2 and 3) . Given the leaks that came out prior to the expansion draft; what is Las Vegas’ strategy? Are good general managers always good or do they excel in some areas and struggle in others? We discuss those questions and more in this episode of The Hockey-Graphs Podcast. Any comments are appreciated, the goal is to produce a podcast that people want to hear. Please subscribe to the podcast on iTunes!
Who You Calling Weak? Draft Class Variance
This year’s NHL draft class is weak. I don’t follow junior prospects closely, but that’s what I’ve heard from more knowledgeable sources. It’s a fair claim; Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier seem talented but not among the game-changing talents that have recently been drafted first overall.
However, it’s harder to judge the draft class past the very top. Scouting is hard, especially for hundreds of prospects across the world. It’s possible that while there is no clear star in the draft class, the rest of the draft is as strong as ever.
That would have big implications for draft strategy. The conventional wisdom is that teams may trade more picks this year because they believe the weak draft class makes the picks less valuable. But if the draft is typical after the first few picks, that would be a poor use of assets.
We don’t yet know how well this year’s draft class will do in the NHL. But, we can use historical data to ask questions that establish expectations: how well does each draft class typically perform, and how much does this vary by year?
The Hockey-Graphs Podcast Episode 2: Risk Aversion and the Draft
Welcome back to The Hockey-Graphs Podcast! Our second episode showcases Namita Nandakumar‘s recent articles; Exploiting Variance in the NHL Draft and Who’s Getting Drafted This Year?. Namita and Adam discuss: draft theory, risk aversion, player potential, central scouting rankings and how to best apply her research moving forward. Any comments are appreciated, the goal is to produce a podcast that people want to hear. Please subscribe to the podcast on iTunes!
FQG: Cumulative Hits in the Conference Final
Throughout the playoffs (quarterfinals, semifinals), I have analyzed whether a team’s hits for and against were indicative of their success. Studying a team’s Corsi for percentage per game and expected goals for per game alongside their cumulative hits can help us spot high-level trends.
We’re seeking to determine the accuracy of the narrative that many hockey traditionalists love – that a team must increase their hitting to succeed in their quest for the Stanley Cup. This has been studied in recent seasons, including 2014-15 season, 2015 playoffs, and 2016 playoffs, yet no decisive correlation was found between a team’s increased hitting and success. So far in the first two rounds of the playoffs, this seems to hold true.
Should teams play with 4 forwards when they’re down late?
Embed from Getty Images
Tl;dr
- There is some evidence to suggest that teams should play with 4 forwards when trailing late in a game.
- The timing of when to switch to 4 forwards is dependent on how large an impact the switch has on goal scoring rates, however even with a low impact on goal scoring, using 4 forwards still makes sense.
One of the weird things about sports that I find fascinating is how often coaches and players seem to go out of their way to avoid having a negative impact on the game, even at the expense of potential positive impacts. People often seem to prefer to “not lose” rather than to win, which can result in sub-optimal decision making, even in the presence of evidence to show that the correct decision is not being made.
There are many examples of this across sports, but the biggest two in hockey are pulling the goalie and playing with 3 forwards on the power play. Analysts have been arguing for many years now about why teams should pull their goalies earlier, but it’s only been in recent seasons that teams have become more aggressive in getting their netminders out earlier.
Hockey Graphs 