Behind the Numbers: Where analytics and scouts get the draft wrong

Every once-in-a-while I will rant on the concepts and ideas behind what numbers suggest in a series called Behind the Numbers, as a tip of the hat to the website that brought me into hockey analytics: Behind the Net. My ramblings will look at the theory and philosophy behind analytics and their applications given what is already publicly known.

Hello everyone; I am back! I was in the process of writing an article on NHL prospect development for after the draft (teaser!) when a Twitter thread sparked my interest and made me want to do a bit of a ranty, very pseudo-Editorial or Literature Review on analytics and the draft while combing over that thread.

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Data May Not Drive Play, But It Should Drive Decisions

It’s not easy creating a data-driven decision-making culture in any organization, let alone one as bound in tradition and lore as the NHL, where hockey men are imbued with mythical powers of observation and judgement just by virtue of having played the game. And yet, the NHL is clearly moving in that direction. It may be at a glacier-like pace, but I suppose that makes sense, what with the ice and all. Despite some early stumbles, it’s probably safe to say that it is only a matter of time before data-driven decisions are the norm rather than the exception. Whether that happens while we still have glaciers is another matter.

But even when there is a managerial will and top-down direction to move toward a data-driven culture, it is often difficult to introduce data analysis into the existing decision-making process of an organization. It’s not just deep structural changes that are necessary, but also staff will need a robust change management process. It’s hard enough to get people to accept change, but a new culture requires that they go beyond acceptance and embrace it as a new way of doing things. This is a difficult process in any organization. However, it is made more difficult in the hockey world where many in positions of authority are in those roles precisely because they “played the game” and understand the traditional way of doing things.

But what if you could start from scratch and build something from the ground up? 

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NHL Scoring Trends, 2007-08 to 2017-18: Is the League Getting More Competitive?

Photo by Bobby Schultz, via Wikimedia Commons

Though it was completely tangential to @SteveBurtch’s line of thinking, his brief comments pondering the competitiveness between the middle of NHL lineups yesterday (which I can’t locate now, natch) got me thinking about whether the NHL and team management has gotten any more efficient or competitive overall the last decade. With 10 years in the books for complex Corsi data, and hockey’s seeming “Moneyball moment” fully here regardless of the quibbling on social and mainstream media, is the league getting any tighter?

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The 2017 NHL GM Report Card – Part 2

(This piece was written as a collaboration between Carolyn Wilke and Chris Watkins)

Alright, we’re only a little bit sorry we made you read our methodology post first, because we know what you really want is below. Still, we recommend you understand how we came to our ratings before you continue reading this post.

We’re sure you’ll disagree with us on some points, and that’s fine – despite our best efforts, these are still fairly subjective ranks. Still, try this exercise for yourself, and it’s possible your opinions will change.

Now, without further ado – all 31 GMs, ranked.

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The 2017 NHL GM Report Card – Part 1

(This piece was written as a collaboration between Carolyn Wilke and Chris Watkins)

What makes a good general manager in the NHL?

It’s a hard question, plagued by subjectivity, by bias, and by lack of transparency. It’s complicated by league mandates like the expansion draft and the hard salary cap. It mixes the weight of process, results, and vision into one big stew, where it can be difficult to distinguish the meat from the sauce.

It’s a question, that unlike many others, is difficult to quantify with even the most advanced of stats.

And it’s one that the league has no desire to answer definitively, as that would only hurt the men currently in those roles.

Fortunately for you, Hockey Graphs loves tackling the hard questions.

In the following articles, we will attempt to rank all 31 of the NHL’s GMs, as objectively as possible, according to seven important criteria. They each painstakingly researched trade histories, draft selections, and salary cap management, coming up with a final score for each.

While this process still was subjective, in that these scores are not quantitatively derived, it was an extremely holistic process, and both of us were forced to confront some of our own biases.

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Practical Concerns: The Analyst’s Plight

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(Image Wikipedia Commons)

Recently, the statistical analyst of an NHL team was let go in the aftermath of an underwhelming regular season and a puzzling decision involving one of the team’s most productive and iconic players. Rights and wrongs aside, the episode illustrated an uncomfortable fact: the analyst’s job is perhaps the most fragile one of all.

Imagine the tightrope walker, balancing him/herself atop a fine metal wire between two buildings. The job is a difficult one on the best of days, requiring a lifetime of practice and undivided focus. Randomness is not the tightrope walker’s friend. A gust of wind, a slight mis-step or even a meeting with an errand low-flying pigeon could yield deadly consequences.

While the physical stakes are different, an analyst’s career prospects (and personal well-being) are similarly affected by things out of his or her control. While job security in any field is dependent on market conditions, things are especially dire for the technical worker responsible for uncovering Truths, but ranked too low in the corporate hierarchy to effect real change.

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Practical Concerns: On Randomness, Risk-Taking And Coaching

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Something I set time aside for during the off-season is reading non-hockey books in an attempt to gain a better perspective on hockey. The work of Michael Lewis (Liar’s Poker, The Big Short, Boomrang) and Nassim Taleb (The Black Swan, Fooled By Randomness) were of particular inspiration.

Below are some assorted thoughts based on recent readings and events. Tweet me (@ML_Han) if you’d like to disagree and tell me why. Eventually I hope to spend some time talking about this or a tangential at the second edition of RITHAC this September.

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Looking back at the NHL trade deadline

Embed from Getty Images

 

On Monday, fans tuned into one of the quieter NHL trade deadlines in recent memory. Despite the slow pace of movements, Matt Cane (@cane_matt) and I set about making visuals to give our takes on each trade.

Here, we’ll look back on a few of our takes from the trade deadline. We’ll focus ourselves with three categories – a trade where we had a similar take, a trade we disagreed on, and our favourite viz from the day.

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Special Teams Analytics in the 21st Century

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Despite them accounting for approximately 20 percent of NHL game time, special teams have been largely ignored when it comes to analytics. Considering the data available and its small sample size compared to even-strength, that is somewhat understandable, and there have certainly been attempts to properly quantify and assess power plays. So what do we know so far? Continue reading

Rebounds, Extended Zone Time, and the Quest For More Offense

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Long has it been argued that sustained zone time is a reliable way to not only prevent your opponents from scoring but as a way to produce offense of your own. The argument that is often made, or at least the one that’s often heard, is that the longer you are in the offensive zone the more likely it is that the defense will become fatigued and make a mistake that leaves someone open for a prime scoring opportunity. 

So let’s test that theory by asking a more data driven question; does sustained zone time lead to an increase in shooting percentage?

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