When Can You Trust Your Intuition: The problem with having played the game

A common retort that many in the hockey analytics community have gotten is: “have you ever played the game?”

The insinuation, of course, is that if you haven’t played hockey at a high level, let alone in the NHL, then you can’t possibly understand the game. Certainly not as well as those who have. And that when it comes to evaluating players or making decisions on how best to improve a hockey team, the former players and lifelong hockey men that populate the league’s front offices can always fall back on their instinct for the game in ways that no one else can.

But let’s talk about relying on your gut instincts to make decisions.

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It’s Time To Stop Talking About Analytics

Look, nobody knows what analytics actually is anyway, so why are we still talking about it? At its most basic, analytics is simply a tool. Much like a hammer is a tool.

Maybe too much like a hammer. As the old saying goes, when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. The same may be true for analytics. At least in some contexts. Yes, analytics is simply a way to draw meaning out of data, but just because you finally figured out how to apply gradient boosting to your ridge regression model doesn’t mean you should.

Once you think of analytics as a tool, a means to an end, then it’s much easier to see that it’s not just a tool, but an entire toolbox. And when you reach into that toolbox, the tool you take out should depend on what you want to accomplish.

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