Author: hayyyshayyy

How important are faceoffs to possession in women’s hockey?

hayyyshayyy NWHL, Women's Hockey Tags: , , Leave a comment


This was co-written by Mike Murphy, Alyssa Longmuir, and Shayna Goldman based on work for the Big Data Cup and Ottawa Hockey Analytics Conference.

As a result of women’s hockey analytics needing to play “catch up,” it’s not unusual to see analysts relying on stats that have already been proven to be less insightful in the men’s game. One such area of the game that is frequently highlighted at the collegiate, professional, and international levels of the women’s game are faceoffs. 

Faceoffs have been covered extensively in men’s hockey, and much of that work points to the fact that faceoffs wins aren’t all that they’re chalked up to be. Back in 2015, Arik Parnass, now of the Colorado Avalanche, found, “This … aligns with what hockey analysis has found over the years when it comes to faceoffs. Overall, winning them just isn’t as important as it’s made out to be.” 

While a great deal of work has been done on the importance (or lack thereof) of faceoffs in the men’s game the same cannot be said of women’s hockey. But why would it be any different? 

Continue reading →

By the numbers: thinking about the World Championships a different way

hayyyshayyy NHL Topical Analysis 2 Comments

This post was co-authored by Shayna Goldman and Alison Lukan

As part of the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 World Championship was cancelled. But, we still wanted to see how rosters for an international tournament with NHLers could have shaken out. While it’s easy to just put together an All Star lineup for most countries, we wanted to add a twist: each country’s roster could only include NHL players and each team had to be compliant with the 2019-20 salary cap. 

So what does this look like? A little bit about our process, first.

Six teams will compete in our fictitious tournament: Canada, USA, Sweden, Finland, Russia, and Europe. Each roster consists of 12 forwards, six defenders, and two goaltenders. Because we were limited to NHL players, talent from outside of those core countries in Europe was combined to form one super team. 

Continue reading →

How Much Do NHL Players Really Make? Part 2: Taxes

hayyyshayyy CBA, NHL Topical Analysis, Uncategorized 6 Comments

Although published NHL salaries may seem exorbitant at times, players’ annual income is subject to a number of withholdings that limit their take-home pay. As we explained in Part 1 of this series, players lose some of their earnings to escrow – a reconciliation process arising out the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the league and the NHL Players’ Association. Another expense that reduces a player’s earnings is something that all workers in the United States and Canada are subject to: taxes.

screen shot 2019-01-07 at 5.01.40 pm

Continue reading →

How Much Do NHL Players Really Make?

hayyyshayyy CBA, NHL Topical Analysis 3 Comments

Under the provisions of the collective bargaining agreement between the NHL and the NHLPA, a player’s cap hit and the salary they are paid can be two very distinct values in any given year. But even when you understand those differences, how much do NHL player actually take home?

Players’ actual earnings are diminished by a number of factors including escrow, agent fees, and taxes. Agent fees can range from 2-6% depending on representation agreements and services rendered. Tax rates vary throughout the NHL depending on the country, state, and city a team and player reside and play in. But of all the deductions from their income, escrow might be considered the greatest annoyance, as it’s a mechanism to ensure that the owners collect a greater share of hockey-related revenues (HRR) than they have in previous collective bargaining agreements (CBA).

So what is escrow, how much does it actually deplete a player’s salary, and why has it contributed to the tensions between players and owners?

Continue reading →

FQG: Cumulative Hits in the Conference Final

hayyyshayyy NHL Topical Analysis, Playing Styles, Uncategorized 1 Comment

May-15-2017 21-24-14 phaneuf hits guentzal

Throughout the playoffs (quarterfinals, semifinals), I have analyzed whether a team’s hits for and against were indicative of their success. Studying a team’s Corsi for percentage per game and expected goals for per game alongside their cumulative hits can help us spot high-level trends.

We’re seeking to determine the accuracy of the narrative that many hockey traditionalists love – that a team must increase their hitting to succeed in their quest for the Stanley Cup. This has been studied in recent seasons, including 2014-15 season, 2015 playoffs, and 2016 playoffs, yet no decisive correlation was found between a team’s increased hitting and success. So far in the first two rounds of the playoffs, this seems to hold true.

Continue reading →

How Indicative are hits in the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Semifinals

hayyyshayyy NHL Topical Analysis, Playing Styles, Uncategorized Tags: , , Leave a comment

After the conclusion of the 2017 Stanley Cup Quarterfinals, I looked at whether a team’s hits for and against were indicative on their play. By looking at a team’s Corsi for percentage per game and expected goals for per game, against their cumulative hits as their first round progressed, it could be observed whether a team’s production dropped due to being outhit.

As it was explained in the first part of this series, many hockey traditionalists point to an increased number of hits as a necessity to compete for the Stanley Cup. There is a preconceived notion by some hockey minds that a team will become worn out if they are consistently outhit in the playoffs and subsequently will not be able maintain their production. However, in the 2014-15 season, 2015 playoffs, and 2016 playoffs, no decisive correlation was found between success and hits.

Continue reading →

How Indicative are hits in the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Quarter-finals

hayyyshayyy NHL Topical Analysis, Playing Styles Tags: , , 2 Comments

As the Stanley Cup Playoffs progress, the intensity rises. This often leads to more physical play, thus an increase of hits. Hockey traditionalists, including players and coaches, have often pointed to increased hits as a part of playoff hockey. Some teams have altered their strategy to embody a more physical style, simply because it is the playoffs.

The impact of hitting has been explored before during the 2014-15 season, the 2015 playoffs (both by Garret Hohl), and the 2016 playoffs (by @yolo_pinyato). However, none found a decisive correlating success to hits.

Continue reading →

Grit vs. Skill: Tanner Glass vs. Pavel Buchnevich

hayyyshayyy NHL Topical Analysis Tags: , Leave a comment

After losing 4-1 to the Montreal Canadiens on March 4, the Rangers recalled Tanner Glass from the their AHL affiliate, the Hartford Wolfpack. Rather than attribute the loss to the Rangers playing poorly––since the Canadiens outshot the Rangers 35-27, won 63% of faceoffs, and had Carey Price in net––much of the blame for the loss was placed on the Rangers lack of “grit” and “toughness.” According to the Rangers, the difference makers in that game were Dwight King, Andrew Shaw, and Steve Ott.

Since recalling Tanner Glass, he has played in six games, and has recorded a goal and an assist. Many view having a tough player like Glass in the lineup as a deterrent. In his first game back with the Rangers against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Glass put his toughness on display early by fighting Luke Witkowski. Later that period, Gabriel Dumont of the Lightning boarded Rangers’ defenseman Steven Kampfer––something that Glass’s presence should have deterred, right?

Continue reading →