Andrew MacDonald

2014-2015 Season Preview: The Metro Division

garik16 NHL League-Wide Analysis Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 5 Comments

Image from Michael Miller via Wikimedia Commons

Last year, in preseason, the Metro Division, was considered by far the strongest division in the East and the likely bet to take both Wild Cards.  The whole division, minus the Pens, promptly started the season by getting hammered, only recovering later in the season to grab one of the two wild cards.

This year again, the top 5 of the division looks strong enough to take two wild cards.  The bottom 3, particularly the bottom 2, are very weak, but the top 5 is strong and near evenly matched such that they could wind up in any order.  But, given the requirement to project the division, these are how I believe the division should finish up, from worst to first:

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Defensive defensemen are struggling in the playoffs

Garret Hohl NHL Topical Analysis Tags: , , , , , , , , , 5 Comments

It has been said that a “stay-at-home” defensive defenseman’s value expands in the post season. The theory behind this supposes that the looser rules regarding physical force and obstruction play into these defender’s strengths. However, this is not always the case.

Thus far, we have seen some of the larger names in the business struggle in their roles.

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What’s the deal with Andrew MacDonald: Why do the statistics suggest he’s terrible?

garik16 Exploring Context, NHL Topical Analysis Tags: , , , , , , Leave a comment

Did you really think I was going to miss the opportunity to post the AMac with chains gif again? You thought wrong.

Islander Defenseman Andrew MacDonald is one of the hot names being bounced around during the trade deadline.  On one hand, this makes sense: He’s making basically nothing on his current contract, he’s one of the time on ice leaders in the NHL this year and has handled top level competition for a few years now.

On the other hand, his conventional fancystats show a well…..massive decline:

AMacThreeYear

Yikes.  That 2013-2014 number is downright terrible, dropping MacDonald into the bottom tier of defensemen.  And no zone starts and certainly not competition (see this article for an analysis of AMac vs various levels of competition) does not account for this.  If you believed the fancystats, AMac isn’t just not a top tier DMan, but not even a 2nd or 3rd pairing guy who could help any team at all.  Yet teams seem to believe he’s worth a high pick?  So what’s going on?  Is the conventional thought completely wrong here?

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Overemphasizing Context – A mistake just as poor as explaining context in the first place.

garik16 Exploring Context, NHL League-Wide Analysis, Theory Tags: , , , , , 4 Comments
AMac Context

The only context that can explain Andre MacDonald’s performance is if he’s actually wearing these chains under his uniform.

Eric Tulsky frequently points out on twitter that common critiques of analytics people (whether it be hockey or any other sports analytics) tend to act as if those involved with analytics are kind of stupid and have ignored the obvious.  For example, people tend to respond to arguments involving corsi and possession by bringing up the obvious subject of context – “Sure he has a bad corsi, but he gets tough minutes!”  And the general response of course is, yes we have, and we wouldn’t be making these assertions had we not done so.   Hockey Analytics has come up with a multitude of statistics to measure context – Behind The Net alone has 3 metrics for quality of competition and 3 metrics for quality of teammates, plus a measure of zone starts – HA has multiple different measures for the same thing and so does now Extra Skater (with Time on Ice QualComp and QualTeam).

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