How Can We Quantify Power Play Performance In Formation?

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Last week I wrote about a new metric, ZEFR Rate, which measures zone entry success on the power play and is relatively repeatable and predictive of future goal scoring efficiency. The metric was based around the idea that getting into formation efficiently — most frequently a 1-3-1 — is a catalyst for power play success.

But now let’s say you’re a team that has perfected your entry scheme, and you find yourself setting up in formation at a consistent rate. What now? How can one maximize one’s use of possession in formation to score goals at the highest possible rate?

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ZEFR Rate: A New and Better Way to Evaluate Power Plays

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Some day we will reach the point where we can comprehensively analyze which power plays are the best, which players drive that success, and most elusively, what roles to place players in to maximize a unit’s output, but statistically, our special teams cupboard is pretty bare. This season, as many of you know, I took on the long and arduous task of hockey tracking in the interest of trying to get us even one step closer to our objective: how can we better evaluate and predict power play success? So let’s dive right in. Continue reading