Input versus Output: An Ongoing Battle that No One Knows About

XKCD comics is written by Randall Munroe, a physicist who probably doesn’t know what  hockey underlying numbers (ie: #fancystats or advance statistics) even are, let alone supports them… yet – for the most part – he gets it.

Mainstream sports commentary is full of poor analysis when it comes to using numbers appropriately. Most of this comes from a lack of understanding between the difference between inputs versus outputs and how much a player can control certain factors. (It should be noted that this is a broad generalization; not everyone falls into this category).

Benjamin Wendorf displayed a bit of these factoids in his recent article Why The Hockey News’ Ken Campbell is Wrong About Alex Ovechkin, but Campbell still didn’t get it.

What happened:

For those that do not know, here is a quick summary of Campbell’s article:
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Why The Hockey News’ Ken Campbell is Wrong About Alex Ovechkin

File:Defense.gov photo essay 080220-F-6684S-642.jpg

Photo by Adam M. Stump via Wikimedia Commons

You know, there was a time when I relished The Hockey News, and really any hockey writing I could get my hands on. I grew up in the sticks in Wisconsin, where you can’t find jack about hockey, and so to convince your parents to buy a THN magazine was a real treat. I’ve never forgotten that feeling, and I want those old reporting institutions to continue, but it isn’t going to happen with haphazard attempts at analysis like Ken Campbell’s piece on Ovechkin from today. In it, he tries to argue that Ovechkin is going to have the worst 50-goal season in NHL history because his plus-minus isn’t good. After the jump, let’s take a look at some of these gems.

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