Author: Jared

Re-examining Fenwick and Playoff Success

Jared NHL League-Wide Analysis Tags: , , 1 Comment
Pavel Datsyuk

Pavel Datsyuk and the best Fenwick team in recent history lifted the Cup in 2008

Image from Dan4th Nicholas via Wikimedia Commons

Back in April of 2013, Chris Boyle presented his study of the relationship between a team’s Fenwick percentage in close-score situations and their eventual success in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Since then, there’s been two Stanley Cup playoffs played. Also the previous 2007-08 start point for shot attempt data was extended two years backwards thanks to War on Ice. All told, it’s an another four seasons of data added to the five Boyle examined.

Worth another look, in my opinion.

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2014-15 Season Preview: The Atlantic Division

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Image from Sarah Connors via Wikimedia Commons

Finishing last season with an average of 87.6 points per team, the Atlantic/Flortheast Division was the worst in the NHL. I see that gap widening, not narrowing, in 2014-15.

The battle at the top of the division will, in my eyes, come down to two teams: the Boston Bruins and the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Bruins have placed either first or second in their division (the Atlantic or the former Northeast) in each of the past four seasons. The 2nd place Lightning finished a full 16 points behind the Bruins in 2013-14, but a strong off-season combined with a full season of Steven Stamkos and rookie Jonathan Drouin potentially making an impact has them near even money with the Bruins.

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Five Players to Avoid in Your Fantasy Draft

Jared For Fun Tags: , , , , 4 Comments
Image from Ivan Makarov via Wikimedia Commons

Image from Ivan Makarov via Wikimedia Commons

Fantasy hockey season is just around the corner, and many drafts will take place in the upcoming two weeks. I’ve identified five players whose underlying (and in some cases overlying) numbers suggest their 2013-14 statlines may contain some mirage-like components, and who are getting picked higher than they likely should be.

1. Joe Pavelski

Pavelski finished third in league goal scoring last season with 41 goals, shattering his previous career high of 31 goals set in 2011-12. What should be concerning to potential fantasy owners is that the spike in goal scoring was driven by a jump in shooting percentage, not an increase in shots on goal. In fact, Pavelski’s 2.74 shots on goal per game was his second lowest mark since his sophomore 2007-08 season. His drop in shots was more than made up for by his shooting percentage jumping up to 18.2%, well up from his previous career mark of 10.0%.

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Who Were the Top Goaltenders of Each Decade?

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Image from Rick Dikeman via Wikimedia Commons

Image from Rick Dikeman via Wikimedia Commons

I set out to measure the top goaltenders of each decade using a simple measure that adjusts for different environments of the years played.

The measure used is Saves Above League Average which is a measure of how many pucks a goalie stops relative to league average from that season. It is computed as:

salaformula

I compiled the top 10 and bottom 10 for the cumulative totals for the decades and the most extreme single-season marks.

If you want to test yourself before looking at the results, I made them into Sporcle quizzes: 2000s / 1990s / 1980s

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Twenty Players to Expect a Shooting Percentage Bounceback from in 2014-15

Jared NHL Topical Analysis Tags: Leave a comment
Photo from Michael Miller via Wikimedia Commons

Photo from Michael Miller via Wikimedia Commons

Goals are such a small sample stat that even over a full season you’ll see some raw figures that may not be overly indicative of ability. As a general rule, you can normally expect a player’s goal total to bounce back from a down season if the player is still producing shots on goal but suffered a significant drop in shooting percentage.

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Can NHL Teams Win With Two Mega Cap-Hits?

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The new contracts of Kane and Toews mean an imminent death of the Blackhawks, says everyone
Photo from Matt Boulton via Wikimedia Commons

When Patrick Kane and Patrick Kane signed matching eight year extensions with $10.5 million annual cap-hits, many wondered out loud if a team can be successful with two players occupying $21 million in cap space together.

So I decided to take a look at the relationship between a team’s success, measured by total regular season and playoff wins, and how much of their total cap outlay is from their top two cap charges.

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How Are Players Affected Financially By Buy-Outs?

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photocred Wikimedia Commons

I compiled the data for all the players bought out by their teams since the 2005 lock-out (excluding this year’s buy-out class) and examined how much of the the money lost to the buy-out they made back over the years that were bought out. When players are bought-out, they get a portion of their previous contract, and are given an opportunity to re-enter the free agent market. Potentially, they could end up a net winner from the process.

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How Will Joe Thornton Perform Through his Contract?

Jared Career Chart Tags: , 1 Comment

photocred Wikimedia Commons

Joe Thornton has been in the news a lot recently, with talk that the Sharks are looking to move him as part of what they are labeling a rebuild.

Thornton is elite. In the past five seasons, he’s tied with Corey Perry as the sixth best point accumulator in the league. The Sharks signed Thornton, who turns 35 within two weeks, to a three year contract with a cap-hit of $6.75 million back in January.

I’m sure any potential acquiring team is intensely interested in how Thornton may depreciate over the life of his contract.

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