Friday Quick Graph: Does puck possession affect penalty differentials?

Screen shot 2014-10-30 at 11.55.42 AM

Using data from War-On-Ice.com, I grabbed the penalty and Corsi differentials for all teams for 5v5 score tied minutes. The whole point was to look at whether or not possession plays a role in a team’s penalty differential.

Above we see a weak but real relationship, with about 6.7% of penalty differentials being explained via possession.

From the regression curve, we estimate the average impact difference between a top and bottom possession team is about 11 penalties drawn per a season for 5v5 score-tied minutes. Of course, there is the opportunity to draw penalties for other team strengths and score situations. (The bottom/top difference is using the 40-60 rule)

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