NHL Stanley Cup Finals Prediction: Fighting the Coin

File:Épreuve de 5 cents en laiton du Canada représentant George VI.jpg

Image by “cgb.fr” via Wikimedia Commons

Unfortunately, size couldn’t work forever…the Ducks’ failure to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals realized the 30% chance that none of our brackets correctly picked both series winners last round. My only conclusion is we don’t know anything about hockey.

In a related story, SAP bricked one of their picks as well, so the Finals will ultimately determine if their “85% accurate model” manages to do better than a coin flip this year (as of right now, they are 8 for 14). Let’s see how truculence, size, and experience did last round, where they stand for the playoffs, and which one of them will accurately predict who wins the Cup.

Bracket Series Guessed Correctly Team Wins Accuracy
Truculence 1 of 2 69%
Size 0 of 2 50%
Experience 1 of 2 81%

“Experience” (average age of roster) was excellent last series, completely predicting the CHI-ANA outcome while stumbling a bit on NYR-TBL. “Size” (average BMI of roster), which had been our best performing of the three measures through the first two rounds, completely swung and missed on CHI-ANA (predicting an Anaheim sweep) and barely salvaged any dignity on NYR-TBL. That poor round ended up hurting size in the overall tally:

Bracket Series Guessed Correctly Team Wins Accuracy
Truculence 5 of 14 62%
Size 5 of 14 67%
Experience 6 of 14 69%

Experience pulls ahead, but unfortunately the long-extolled virtues of truculence, size, and experience have all struggled below the coin flip, with no hope of matching the loonie this year. Darn.

The Finals predictions (click to enlarge):

Truculence and size like the Lightning in 7, while experience likes Chicago in 6 games. SAP also likes Chicago. We’ll see how it goes, though really, in case you haven’t been following this exercise, it doesn’t really matter.

That said, this should be a fun series to watch. So watch the games already.

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