Measuring Playoff Excitement

Most of us are by now familiar with the concept of win probability. The current state of the game has many implications on the way the game is played and I’ve been a proponent of using it to adjust statistics as an alternative to using just the score, since win probability itself is simply a function of score and time remaining.

In the spirit of the playoffs today I want to use win probability and corresponding statistic leverage to measure ‘excitement’. Leverage is the total win probability added (and for the opposing team, lost) on account of a particular goal. If a team scores a goal in the last second of the third period, the win probability added would be about 0.5: they went from essentially 0% to 50% chance of winning the game.

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